Master of Science Koen van Greevenbroek will Wednesday November 27th, 2024, at 12:15 hold his disputas for the PhD degree in Science. The title of the thesis is:
«Near-optimality and robustness in energy systems modelling»
To avert a climate disaster, the global energy system quickly needs to transition to net-zero emissions. This will involve drastic reductions in the use of fossil fuels on one hand and electrification based on renewable energy on the other hand. Research has shown that the transition is technically feasible, but presents us with difficult trade-offs and compromises. Since renewable energy is more exposed to variability, the future will also present us with new robustness challenges.
Energy systems optimisation models, used to investigate possible future energy system designs, by default optimise for the least total cost. However, recent research has shown that near-optimal solutions, which are feasible and only slightly more expensive than cost-optimal ones, open up more options and create space for exploring factors that are hard to quantify. In this thesis, we develop a new methodology for approximating the space of all near-optimal solutions. It is applied to mapping out regional planning flexibility in Europe, analysing possible pathways for European green hydrogen production and studying how weather years impact the space of system designs. Across the board, the results show a wealth of options, creating much-needed space for public debate.
The advances in near-optimal methods are balanced by contributions towards improving robustness in energy systems design. We introduce a new method for identifying extreme weather events in energy systems with high shares of renewables, and use it to find the weather regimes posing the greatest risk of blackouts to a future European power system. By intersecting near-optimal spaces, we explore European energy system designs that are not only robust against different weather years but also various scenarios, including changing technology costs and land-use restrictions. In a case study on Norwegian hydrogen exports, we show that while technically feasible, the systemic impact of exports would face significant challenges in terms of land-use, social acceptance and equity. By taking a holistic perspective, energy systems modelling can help us brace for an uncertain future.
Hannah Daly, Professor in Sustainable Energy and Energy Systems Modelling, University College Cork, Environmental Research Institute, Civil Engineering, Ireland (1. opponent)
Asgeir Tomasgard, Professor of Operations Research, Director NTNU Energy, Director NTNU Energy Transition Initiative, Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, NTNU, Trondheim (2. opponent)
Associate professor Elisavet Kozyri, Institute for Computer Science, UiT (internal member and leader of the committee)
The disputas and trial lecture will be streamed from these sites:
Disputas (12:15 - 16:00)
Trial Lecture (10:15 - 11:15)
The thesis is available at Munin here.