Hybrid Terrorism
The High North (nordområdene) holds a pivotal role sharing a border with Russia and attracting increasing attention from China. This region, vital for economic growth due to its natural resources, faces unique challenges. Despite heightened military security in response to Russia’s presence and evolving global dynamics, there is a growing concern about potential “under-threshold” hybrid threats.[4] These threats, distinct from traditional military actions, could aim to destabilize the region without triggering NATO’s Article 5, which is the main security safeguard. This, in turn, hinges on the security and safety of critical infrastructure (CI) in the region. Recent incidents, such as the mysterious disappearance and damage to critical undersea cables in North Norway, raise security concerns. The possibility of state-sponsored terrorist attacks on critical infrastructure adds another layer of complexity, prompting a critical question: Is the Arctic adequately prepared for terrorist threats to CI?
HYBRID TERRORISM (HT) project aims to (1) provide knowledge about and insight into new threats to critical infrastructure (CI) in the Arctic resulting in (2) an increased knowledge of and insight into changes in the security situation and the consequences for the whole region thereby building (3) the security policy basis for long-term planning simultaneously contributing to (4) competence-building and strengthening of the society.
A potential military attack on the High North, integral to Russia’s bastion defence strategy, would now target not just one NATO member but potentially three. However, sabotage, attributed to rogue terrorist organizations targeting CI (like Nordstream attacks or the damaging of the Balticconnector Finland-Estonia pipeline), aligns seamlessly with the dynamics of hybrid warfare. State-backed clandestine groups, trained and funded, targeting critical infrastructure are an emerging threat. The interconnected nature of incidents, such as damage to gas pipelines and telecom cables, underscores the potential of such threat. As the hybrid war paradigm gains prominence, it becomes imperative for the Arctic region to prepare accordingly. My research is essential to understand and counter these emerging challenges. Notably, Russia’s use of the Arctic for trial runs of hybrid terrorist operations, as seen in past incidents like SVALSAT should not be dismissed.
In this research we will fully capitalise upon the unique capacity of the Department of Technology and Safety at UiT which, blending social and natural sciences, offers a fully interdisciplinary insights into development of technology and preparedness together with elucidation of threat exposure and operational procedures that can be used to counter terrorist threats to CI.
Members:
Financial/grant information:
This project is funded by the Arctic Six.